A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
