Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Widely Criticised 'Sham' Election.

Election materials in Myanmar
The country's junta is holding a staggered vote over the coming weeks.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".

Alexandra Gordon MD
Alexandra Gordon MD

Mark van der Linden is a trade analyst with over a decade of experience in global market research and international business development.