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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still