Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
